Monday, 25 April 2011

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Silver jumps 5 pct; oil, grains up, copper down

  • Monday, 25 April 2011
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  • * Spot gold hits all-time high at $1,513.70/oz

    * U.S. silver up 8 pct to 31-year high of $49.82

    * Coming Up: U.S. NAHB housing market index; 1400 GMT

    By Clarence Fernandez

    SINGAPORE, April 25 (Reuters) - Silver jumped more than 5 percent and gold rose to a record on Monday as investors sought shelter against a weaker dollar, while prices of grains and crude oil surged on supply fears.

    Industrial metal copper bucked the trend, haunted by fears of monetary tightening in China.

    Supported by strong physical demand in Asia, silver jumped by its most in 5 months to just above $49 an ounce, the highest in 31 years and just short of an all-time high, while gold racked up a seventh successive record high at $1,518.10.

    "Trading is choppy and speculative money is driving up the market," said Yuichi Ikemizu, branch manager for Standard Bank in Tokyo.

    "As the market edged higher, a series of stop-loss buys was triggered, especially after silver rose above $48."

    The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies to stand at 74.086 , but remained within sight of last week's trough of 73.735, its lowest since August 2008.

    Markets are looking to a news conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the bank's two-day policy meeting to see how the central bank plans to exit from its super-easy monetary policy, and the impact this will have on the U.S. currency.

    "It's the dollar play," said a precious metals dealer based in Singapore.

    A falling dollar not only makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, it increases the attraction of the metal as a hedge against further dollar weakness.

    Spot gold stood at $1,516.70 an ounce by 0725 GMT, off the earlier high, while silver was at $49.13.

    CRUDE FUELLED BY MIDDLE EAST UNREST

    Brent crude futures rose above $124 a barrel after violence in Syria and Yemen escalated over the weekend, boosting fears that unrest may disrupt more oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Brent LCOc1 gained 40 cents to $124.40 a barrel by 0725 GMT. U.S. crude CLc1 rose 49 cents to $112.78 a barrel.

    "There is no question about it -- Middle East and North Africa continue to be the key factors," said Victor Shum, an analyst at Purvin & Gertz. "Violence has spread beyond Libya to Syria and Yemenand that has set a high floor for oil prices."

    Gains in oil this week are likely to be capped on concerns of the negative impact of high prices on demand and the global economy. Prolonged protests and looming concern over further disruptions would keep markets on edge since fuel demand in key consumers, such as China and India, continues to rise.

    In Shanghai, copper was weighed down by worries about credit conditions in China, consumer of 40 percent of world copper. The metal tracked losses of as much as 1 percent in U.S. futures when trade resumed after a holiday weekend.

    The most active Shanghai copper contract SCFcv1, July, fell 0.9 percent to 70,740 yuan by 0730 GMT. The May copper contract on COMEX in New York HGcv1 dropped 1.2 percent to 434.70 cents/lb ($9,583.39 a tonne).

    With the London Metal Exchange shut for the Easter Monday holiday, trade in the U.S. market may be low key, particularly ahead of the Fed meeting and Thursday's U.S. GDP data. [ID:nN21301019]

    "Base metal prices have dipped across the board, which shows both Shanghai and COMEX are bogged down by worries of credit tightening in China," said Great Wall Futures analyst Li Rong.

    Beijing adopted a more hawkish monetary policy in October, after which it has moved to reduce liquidity and raised interest rates to cool inflation.

    U.S. grains rallied after the holiday weekend, with corn and wheat adding around 2 percent each on continuing worries about weather in major growing areas and limited stockpiles.

    The most active July corn contract Ccv1 rose to $7.59-3/4 a bushel by 0730 GMT, up from $7.44-1/2. Wheat Wcv1 rose 2.4 percent to $8.54-1/2 a bushel.

    Traders' attention is turning to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report later on Monday.

    (Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/markets-commodities-idUSL3E7FP0SU20110425)

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